On this page, we will use some simple models to check Colorado's outlook to reach it's 2030 targets. Colorado wants to reduce their emissions by 50% by 2030. See Colorado Roadmap 2.0. Note that our study focuses only on CO2 emissions.
CO2 Emissions Target
Colorado states the target for total emissions in 2030 is 73.4 million metric tons, but it does not explicitly state its target for CO2 emissions. Since CO2 accounts for approximately 75% of total emissions, we can calculate that the target for CO2 is 73.4 * .75 = 55 million metric tons.
Colorado will need to take additional actions since we project a gap: 78.4 (projection) - 55 (target) = 23.4 million metric tons (gap).
Additional Actions: Colorado plans to decomission 8 of 10 coal units by 2030
The column chart shows the timing and reduction of coal emissions by 2030 using our weighted average model. The model estimates emissions by weighting against total emissions and capability in megawatts of each plant and when it goes offline.
Our model shows that coal emissions will be reduced by an additional 16.2 million metric tons and the remaining emissions from coal will be 8 million metric tons.
Additional Actions: Increasing Electric Power Generation from renewables
The column chart shows that Colorado has made tremendous progress in generating electric power by renewables, particulary with wind doubling every 5 years.
Colorado will need to replace 2550 MW net summer generating capability from coal decommisioning. The state plans to achieve 100% power by renewables by 2040.
Additional Actions: Accelerate the use of Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Colorado has an ambitious goal to achieve 1,000,000 total EV registrations by 2030. However, our model shows that at the current rate it will be difficult to achieve that goal.
Colorado is on track to achieve 400,000 EV registrations by 2030 well below the goal. Next, we will model the potential impact of this on CO2 emissions.
Estimated emissions reductions from 400,000 EVs
Now, let's estimate the additional emission reductions for having 400,000 EVs on the road in 2030. In Colorado, the average vehicle drives 13,443 miles per year. EPA says that the typical CO2 emissions for a passenger vehicle is 400 grams/mile. So ((13,443 miles * 400 g/mile / 1e06 g/MT) * 400,000 EVs) / 1e06 MT/MMT = 2.2 MMT.
Outlook for 2030
| Projection | CO2 MMT |
|---|---|
| Projected normal decline (linear model) | 78.4 |
| Minus coal CO2 emissions (weighted average model) | 16.2 |
| Minus 400,000 gas vehicles (simple calculation) | 2.2 |
| Estimated CO2 emissions in 2030 | 60 |
Earlier, we stated that Colorado does not explicity state it's target for CO2 emissions (they state of goal for total emissions of 73.4 million metric tons in 2030), we calculated that it should be approximately 55 million metric tons (75% of total emissions). Using some simple models, we assess that Colorado is 88% toward meeting its 2030 target for CO2 emissions. If the sale of EVs can be accelerated, Colorado will get closer to it's goal.